• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1526

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 14 23:34:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 142334
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142334=20
    NMZ000-AZZ000-CAZ000-150130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1526
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0634 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

    Areas affected...Arizona

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 142334Z - 150130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue this afternoon across the southeast
    quadrant of Arizona. Gusty thunderstorm outflows will be possible
    with the strongest thunderstorms, but an overall widespread wind
    threat is not anticipated. As such a watch is not expected this
    afternoon and evening.

    DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon
    across the southeast quadrant of Arizona. These thunderstorms are
    slowly moving west on the southern periphery of a strong anticyclone
    across the Great Basin. Surface temperatures in the low 90s F and
    dewpoints in the low 70s F have contributed to upwards of 3000 J/kg
    of most-unstable CAPE across central Arizona. Despite this degree of instability, low-level and mid-level lapse rates are significantly
    weaker than in previous days (likely owing to convective overturning
    from last night's convection) and not as conducive to downward
    momentum transport. This should limit the overall severe wind
    potential to localized areas, generally associated with storm-scale
    processes. This, combined with high-resolution guidance suggestive
    of waning thunderstorm intensity with the loss of diurnal heating
    should preclude the need for a watch.

    ..Marsh/Goss.. 08/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pTudUkR_yuw9Z-t1ab-faV6-GiG6L1eCZw6upNjrHhsume65udB2evow8671ScgP4Oqen2Cj$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

    LAT...LON 32521486 34221452 34531332 34531068 34170940 33590900
    31990899 31240914 31251105 32451486 32521486=20



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