• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1525

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 14 18:50:52 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 141850
    SPC MCD 141850=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1525
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0150 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

    Areas affected...portions of southwest SD into western NE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 141850Z - 142045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts
    are possible this afternoon and evening.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated convection is developing near the southern
    portion of the Black Hills in Custer County SD this afternoon. While large-scale ascent remains modest over the region, this activity is
    likely being aided by orographic influences as strong heating has
    weakened capping over the region and instability has increased to
    1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Additional cumulus is developing across the
    broader region amid weak warm advection/southerly low level flow.
    Moderate mid/upper level northwesterly flow atop southerly low level
    winds is resulting in 35-45 kt effective shear. Midlevel lapse rates
    also are expected to continue steepening through this evening. This
    should result in some organized storm structures capable of
    producing hail. Furthermore, steep low level lapse rates and large temperature-dewpoint spread will promote strong to severe wind

    Given subtle forcing and HRRR guidance notably lacking convection
    compared to other CAMs guidance, there is some uncertainty regarding
    coverage and timing of convection. While the overall environment
    will support severe storms, convective trends will continue to be
    monitored for possible watch issuance should coverage increase
    sufficiently this afternoon.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 08/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!taRtt1rLDQzURmB7WD5ws1HnaAyD2BRu9GkiHNY75UV77trsiCuJmu5m21Nb9dDEoSlbVUMf$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 44110311 44190239 44030183 42830069 41920050 41470098
    41270185 41320259 41660307 42440332 43010356 43800348

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