Mesoscale Discussion 1523
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021
Areas affected...central and eastern ME
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 141624Z - 141800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms could produce strong,
locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
in the vicinity of a surface cold front across western ME. Morning
convection that moved across the state has limited heating over
portions of the region, but some airmass recovery is underway.
Dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F beneath moderate midlevel
flow will support isolated strong convection through the afternoon
as the cold front progresses east/southeast across New England.
Pockets of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and steepening low level lapse
rates, along with PW values approaching 2 inches, will support
semi-organized cells/clusters capable of sporadic strong, to locally
damaging gusts. Marginal effective shear magnitudes and a lack of
stronger instability with poor midlevel lapse rates should limit a
more organized and intense threat, and a watch is not expected at
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