• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1523

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 14 16:24:55 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 141624
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141624=20
    MEZ000-NHZ000-141800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1523
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1124 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

    Areas affected...central and eastern ME

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 141624Z - 141800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms could produce strong,
    locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
    in the vicinity of a surface cold front across western ME. Morning
    convection that moved across the state has limited heating over
    portions of the region, but some airmass recovery is underway.
    Dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F beneath moderate midlevel
    flow will support isolated strong convection through the afternoon
    as the cold front progresses east/southeast across New England.
    Pockets of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and steepening low level lapse
    rates, along with PW values approaching 2 inches, will support
    semi-organized cells/clusters capable of sporadic strong, to locally
    damaging gusts. Marginal effective shear magnitudes and a lack of
    stronger instability with poor midlevel lapse rates should limit a
    more organized and intense threat, and a watch is not expected at
    this time.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 08/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tI9Uedxa_rrNgci304X4vwkPS1rzBwZfqtIQST-PLPMJl26f9u4QLXgj4Ev3xpEcP2KBREU_$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

    LAT...LON 47166889 47366826 47236802 46966768 46046751 45426738
    44836738 44456772 43536955 43197064 43577100 43967088
    44617054 45816985 46226956 47166889=20



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