• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1524

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 14 17:11:00 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 141710
    SPC MCD 141710=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1524
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1210 PM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

    Areas affected...North Carolina...Virginia...and east Maryland

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 141710Z - 141915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to gradually develop through
    the mid/late afternoon hours and may pose a damaging wind risk.
    Trends will be monitored, and a watch may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows generally clear skies over
    VA/NC with a few cumulus fields developing along the Blue Ridge
    Mountains from the Carolinas into western VA as well as across
    central NC along a weakly confluent trough axis. The development of
    these cumulus fields are indicative of boundary-layer
    destabilization thanks to a combination of rich boundary-layer
    moisture, minimal capping (as observed in regional 12z soundings),
    and near-surface parcels approaching their convective temperatures
    (generally in the upper 80s and low 90s) via strong insolation. RAP
    analyses support this idea, showing diminishing MLCIN amid
    increasing MLCAPE (up to 1500-2500 J/kg). Convective initiation is
    already underway south of this region into SC/GA along the trough
    axis where capping is weaker and confluence stronger. Similar storm
    development is expected from NC northward into VA through the mid
    afternoon hours along the trough axis and approaching weak cold
    front as inhibition continues to erode. Deep-layer shear is fairly
    weak, which will limit the overall potential for organized severe
    storms. However, steepening low-level lapse rates may allow for
    sporadic, but damaging, downburst winds with any cell or storm
    clusters. Trends will be monitored, and a watch may be needed for
    portions of central/eastern VA.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 08/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r4PJEa4fPcEYTDAU6RgWFY9shftYzCIa6uiMGO5aUDw4Onm4FEmEUM68pm52RlaMP7K1WtoM$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 36258136 37128030 38157874 38937737 39007635 38687580
    38287573 37627596 37067649 36597714 36047766 35577834
    35217925 35268008 35488109 36258136=20

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