• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1522

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 14 07:52:24 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 140752
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140751=20
    AZZ000-CAZ000-140915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1522
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0251 AM CDT Sat Aug 14 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southwestern Arizona and adjacent portions
    of southeastern California

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439...

    Valid 140751Z - 140915Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity approaching Yuma may still pose a
    risk for strong to severe wind gusts through 2-3 AM MST, before
    crossing the international border and diminishing. The threat for
    severe surface gusts appears to have mostly subsided elsewhere, and
    a new severe weather watch appears unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm activity continues to develop west-southwestward into and through the lower deserts to the west
    and south of Phoenix. In general, downbursts appear to be
    weakening, as conglomerate convective outflow continues to surge out
    ahead of convection. However, to the southwest of an MCV (currently
    northwest of Buckeye), lower/mid tropopspheric lapse rates remain
    fairly steep with the boundary-layer remaining very warm and moist
    (surface temps near 90F and dew points in the mid 70s), contributing
    to moderately large CAPE. This could still support intensifying
    thunderstorm development along the leading edge of the outflow as it
    approaches the Yuma area through 09-10Z, accompanied by the
    potential to produce strong downbursts, and locally strong to severe
    wind gusts.

    ..Kerr.. 08/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tkqqaGtFSIyVS-7_dPwPoXn-AzNh19MfWZRQhAT_lTxD0q85OR6R_2FL5aHm2AS2tcrfWEUw$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PSR...

    LAT...LON 32341479 33471494 33601422 33111368 32861332 32141403
    32341479=20



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