Mesoscale Discussion 1521
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021
Areas affected...southern AZ
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439...
Valid 140424Z - 140530Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439
SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds continues across the Severe Thunderstorm Watch area.
DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar data shows an impressive bowing
segment over Yavapai County, AZ, with a pronounced rear-inflow jet
and likely producing a concentrated swath of damaging winds.=20
Another cluster of storms was developing over eastern Gila County,
with more isolated strong/severe storms east/northeast of Phoenix.=20
In the presence of MLCAPE averaging 1000-1500 J/kg and 25 kts of
northeasterly mid-level flow, storms should continue to cluster and
move southwest across lower elevations through late evening and
early overnight hours with a risk for concentrated corridors of
damaging winds. This scenario is supported by the latest hi-res
guidance including the HRRR and 00z HREF.
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