• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1521

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 14 04:25:20 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 140425
    SPC MCD 140424=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1521
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1124 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

    Areas affected...southern AZ

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439...

    Valid 140424Z - 140530Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439

    SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds continues across the Severe Thunderstorm Watch area.

    DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar data shows an impressive bowing
    segment over Yavapai County, AZ, with a pronounced rear-inflow jet
    and likely producing a concentrated swath of damaging winds.=20
    Another cluster of storms was developing over eastern Gila County,
    with more isolated strong/severe storms east/northeast of Phoenix.=20
    In the presence of MLCAPE averaging 1000-1500 J/kg and 25 kts of
    northeasterly mid-level flow, storms should continue to cluster and
    move southwest across lower elevations through late evening and
    early overnight hours with a risk for concentrated corridors of
    damaging winds. This scenario is supported by the latest hi-res
    guidance including the HRRR and 00z HREF.

    ..Bunting.. 08/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qef0iF75umJBjCRhBOUjekbr9_NZG_JIlg29DnUGiEFOUeE6xgl3vw_B3dxGtROvr4D5uUT4$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 32781426 33871403 34601268 34571177 34051073 33741028
    32621038 32251077 32261299 32781426=20

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