• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1520

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 13 23:49:47 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 132349
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132349=20
    PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-140045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1520
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0649 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

    Areas affected...eastern OH...western PA...northern WV

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438...

    Valid 132349Z - 140045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The potential for strong/damaging winds remains, primarily
    over northern portions of the watch area.

    DISCUSSION...Severe thunderstorms were ongoing at 2345z over
    southwestern PA, with strong/occasionally severe storms to the north
    of WW 438 over northeast OH/northwest PA. Moderate surface-based
    instability and around 30 kts of westerly mid-level flow will
    continue to result in a favorable environment in the short term for
    a risk of mainly damaging winds. Some uncertainty exists regarding
    the coverage of any severe risk north and east of WW 438 with time
    given continued nocturnal cooling and influence of prior convection,
    however current thinking is that an isolated severe threat may exist
    through the evening hours.

    The overall risk outside of the current watch is expected to
    diminish with time and a downstream watch is not currently
    anticipated.

    ..Bunting.. 08/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ujhjkIL9EFy5IuSVvd4IDZGSULDwBH7DMJhjYhePd7UTZo9bo3UCf3FI0FvBAE7Kf86hqkWk$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...ILN...

    LAT...LON 40178272 41448083 42227931 42117883 41107846 40307871
    39667906 39717940 39887982 40158052 40278114 40028257
    40178272=20



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