• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1519

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 13 23:40:47 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 132340
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132340=20
    COZ000-WYZ000-140145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1519
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0640 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

    Areas affected...southeast Wyoming and north-central Colorado

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 132340Z - 140145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening,
    primarily along the front range. Marginal hail and gusty winds will
    be possible, but the overall coverage should preclude the need for a
    watch.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms may continue to develop this
    afternoon and evening within a moist-upslope regime. Presently,
    thunderstorms appear confined to the terrain and have shown little
    propensity to move into the high Plains. Given the northerly flow on
    the northeast side of the western anticyclone, this trend is likely
    to continue.=20

    Despite most-unstable CAPE up to 2000 J/kg, and effective-layer
    shear of 30-40 knots, warm mid-level temperatures and neutral to
    slightly rising mid-level heights will likely limit overall
    convective intensity. Marginal hail and gusty thunderstorm outflows
    will be possible with the strongest storms, but the overall lack of organization and coverage should preclude any need for a watch.

    ..Marsh/Goss.. 08/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rRF3ZuFK045DyBC-FQF_cBqFkGlnieMqqxfMONahO_-Zdhw-DHeomPoKaRYXGaNsl58lde9P$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...

    LAT...LON 39770656 41470642 42290629 42710607 42830536 41840446
    40110447 39170462 38720544 38750649 39770656=20



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