• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1518

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 13 23:15:17 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 132315
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132314=20
    VTZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-140015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1518
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0614 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

    Areas affected...New York

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 437...

    Valid 132314Z - 140015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 437
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue east across eastern New York.
    Strong thunderstorm outflows and hail are the main threat. Behind
    this line of severe thunderstorms, additional thunderstorms may
    occur but overall intensity should largely remain below severe
    limits.

    DISCUSSION...Several clusters of thunderstorms continue across
    portions of central and eastern New York, with the strongest
    thunderstorms stretching from Delaware to Albany counties. These
    thunderstorms continue to work their way east and will pose a threat
    for gusty thunderstorm winds and hail.

    Behind this cluster of storms, the airmass remains moist and
    unstable, capable of producing scattered thunderstorms. Forcing for
    ascent remains somewhat diffuse, which will limit the overall
    coverage and intensity. This threat will diminish rapidly with the
    loss of daytime heating.=20

    There is a growing signal that a second round of thunderstorms may
    impact portions of the area later this evening and overnight, as
    thunderstorms currently across western Pennsylvania move northeast
    into New York and interact with the advancing cold front moving out
    of Canada. Current expectation is that western portions of Severe
    Thunderstorm watch 437 could be canceled early, and that any threat
    later this evening would be addressed in subsequent discussions or
    watches.

    ..Marsh.. 08/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oSh4gWRar3A3Kvm549lHyuISfukhOIf4FlPN5iuUC_21sUOSTfDIbKGLdVbWPcBHj9Ki1fvE$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

    LAT...LON 42577759 44057532 43847339 42137323 41587377 41097518
    40707686 41597775 42577759=20



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