• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1517

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 13 22:57:44 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 132257
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132256=20
    AZZ000-140000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1517
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0556 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

    Areas affected...southern AZ

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 132256Z - 140000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over the higher terrain are expected to
    increase in coverage and move southwest into the lower elevations
    this evening. Damaging winds will be the primary severe risk.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms over the higher
    terrain of eastern AZ are likely to increase in coverage this
    evening as merging outflows contribute to additional updrafts with
    time. Moderate MLCAPE and 25-30 kts of northeasterly flow at 3 km
    (per KFSX VAD) will result in southwest-moving clusters capable of
    severe wind gusts as storms move off of the higher terrain and into
    the lower elevations. Some question remains concerning the overall
    coverage of the severe threat, however the potential exists for
    coverage to warrant watch issuance. Convective trends will continue
    to be monitored closely, and a watch is possible prior to 01z.

    ..Bunting/Goss.. 08/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oUW150CWNElSob3QdR1D2g0UmokZQvVsiRT0aqYb4CkWLAlsrBSGK4CH4eJxd5OAHQutyZjA$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

    LAT...LON 31610984 31461052 31661175 32841316 33791286 33891116
    33531033 32680950 31820929 31610984=20



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