• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1516

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 13 22:02:46 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 132202
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132202=20
    NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-132300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1516
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0502 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

    Areas affected...DE...southern NJ...southeast PA...portions of the
    MD Eastern Shore

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 132202Z - 132300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A risk for damaging thunderstorm winds will exist through
    the early evening hours. Trends are being monitored for the
    possibility of a small Severe Thunderstorm Watch prior to 23z.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of strong/severe thunderstorms producing
    scattered reports of wind damage continues to move steadily east
    across extreme southeast PA and portions of eastern MD in the
    Baltimore vicinity as of 22z. The downstream environment appears
    favorable for a continued severe wind risk to the east of Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch 436 for at least a few more hours given
    moderate/strong MLCAPE, before nocturnal cooling gradually results
    in increasing CINH. Latest CAM guidance also suggests a severe risk
    continuing into early evening, and trends will continue to be
    monitored for the possibility of a small Severe Thunderstorm Watch
    prior to 23z.

    ..Bunting/Goss.. 08/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uWQr2g0m_O92S82kmmmWaiuKa4yM8UhYYBK18BmmX24HtoxnUSXLyHAwOyS8jKJkyPc4bjCm$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

    LAT...LON 38077518 38247586 39377577 39717561 39767527 39757499
    39687474 39537436 39437430 39287429 38587450 38077518=20



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