• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1514

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 13 20:26:45 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 132026
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132026=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-132300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1514
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0326 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

    Areas affected...Central Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 132026Z - 132300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage through the
    early evening hours as convection develops along remnant outflow
    boundaries during peak destabilization. Weak flow aloft will
    generally limit the duration and coverage of the severe threat,
    though sporadic severe winds will be possible.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been ongoing through the afternoon
    across central OK and far northwest TX thanks to a combination of
    weak forcing for ascent along remnant outflow/confluence axes and
    parcels reaching their convective temperatures. Widespread dewpoints
    in the low 70s are supporting 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE across much of
    the state with MLCIN eroding as boundary-layer heating/mixing
    continues. Thunderstorm coverage will likely increase as new storms
    develop along existing and subsequent outflow boundaries within the
    unstable air mass. Weak deep-layer flow will limit the severe
    weather potential, but steep low-level lapse rates will support a
    severe downburst wind potential for locations that have not already
    experienced convective overturning (such winds have already been
    observed with a collapsing cell in northern OK that produced a 71
    mph wind gust at the Perkins, OK Mesonet site). This wind threat
    will remain fairly isolated given poor storm organization, and will
    quickly diminish near sunset with the onset of boundary-layer
    stabilization. Given the sporadic nature of the threat, a watch is
    not expected.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 08/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pn9Yz8KtKzwBWlPI6VFj9CSwX-EuWKBwfxh_48_tBXZRAUUdLP0jjxSV24MGLW1rKOY0WkV9$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 34630022 35579999 36149942 36639789 36909581 36759500
    35999495 35639537 35379599 34969694 34739773 34449849
    34229996 34630022=20



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