• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1513

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 13 18:49:14 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 131849
    SPC MCD 131848=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1513
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0148 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

    Areas affected...north-central PA...central and northern parts of NY

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 131848Z - 132015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered damaging gusts are possible
    this afternoon from north-central PA northeastward into central NY.=20
    It is uncertain whether a severe thunderstorm watch is needed for
    portions of this area.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows an MCV moving east
    across northwest PA near the NY/PA border with an agitated cumulus
    field ahead of the mid-level impulse. A couple of thunderstorms
    have recently developed over north-central PA and over parts of
    central NY. NY Mesonet observations show temperatures generally in
    the mid to upper 80s with lower 70s dewpoints. NAM forecast
    soundings suggest 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE is present based on current
    surface observations, whereas RAP soundings appear too dry at the
    surface and are under-representing buoyancy. Additionally, forecast
    soundings show a modest increase of flow from the surface to the mid
    levels. The 30-kt 500 mb flow is resulting in effective shear
    supporting organized multicells and perhaps brief/weak supercell
    structure. Expecting storm coverage to increase over north-central
    PA into southern NY east of the Finger Lakes through the late
    afternoon in association with the MCV. Strong to locally severe
    gusts (50-60 mph) are possible with the stronger storms.

    ..Smith/Hart.. 08/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rsKelPl1FJckj-Y2dGqzQrPjjZjkX81waNQBCqAhNVzjS3OWYTMUCJ8psjYJTcH_N8cNGZZt$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41857839 43597634 44507446 44377360 43917328 43297338
    41137693 41017765 41367826 41857839=20

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