• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1512

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 13 17:24:43 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 131724
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131724=20
    TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-OKZ000-131930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1512
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

    Areas affected...Western Arkansas to Western Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 131724Z - 131930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage
    through the mid afternoon hours as storms develop within the terrain
    of the Ouachita/Ozark mountains and along an outflow boundary.
    Isolated wind damage and severe hail is possible, but the organized
    severe threat will remain limited.

    DISCUSSION...Recent thunderstorm activity noted across AR and
    western TN is being driven by a combination of diurnal
    heating/orographic ascent and forcing along an outflow boundary from early-morning convection in southeast MO. Rich boundary-layer
    moisture (denoted by dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is
    contributing to moderate to high instability (2000-3000 MLCAPE per
    recent RAP mesoanalysis), limited inhibition, and low surface-parcel
    convective temperatures. Recent GOES imagery shows numerous
    convective towers within the region, suggesting that additional
    storms are likely in the coming hours roughly along the I-40
    corridor in AR into TN. While IR imagery shows vigorous cloud-top
    cooling with some storms, weak deep-layer shear will favor
    transient, poorly organized convection and a limited severe threat.
    This precludes the need for a watch, though given the ample
    instability damaging downburst winds and a few instances of severe
    hail will be possible with any stronger storm.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 08/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oUUFfCJwfSasqTwb5aV_vhQdRVA8w8H6RvRHhARCC_VZ_qHcBaJJEv7bo9Xu1tksySkJHnl-$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...

    LAT...LON 35539456 35809347 35979164 36088982 36128885 35998831
    35368860 35108916 34949039 34849159 34579274 34379356
    34459434 34789459 35069468 35539456=20



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