• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1511

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 13 17:13:45 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 131713
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131713=20
    WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-131915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1511
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1213 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

    Areas affected...Ohio River Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 131713Z - 131915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage through
    the Ohio River Valley as daytime heating continues amid weak
    capping. Storms may be capable of damaging winds and severe hail,
    and a watch may be needed as storm coverage increases this
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated convective towers and weak thunderstorms are
    noted in recent regional radar and GOES imagery. This activity is
    largely being driven by strong daytime heating as low-level parcels
    reach their convective temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s.
    Ample boundary layer moisture ahead of a diffuse cold front further
    to the northwest is supporting MLCAPE values upwards of 2000-2500
    MLCAPE, which is being utilized early this afternoon thanks to
    negligible inhibition. Thunderstorm coverage will likely increase
    through the early to mid afternoon hours as convection develops
    along outflow from ongoing storms and in the vicinity of a weak MCV
    noted in satellite imagery over southern/southeast IN. Despite ample instability, effective shear is relatively modest (near 25 knots),
    and will likely only support loose organization of storm clusters.
    However, damaging winds and severe hail will be possible with any
    stronger updraft pulses and/or organized outflows. Trends will
    continue to be monitored, and a watch may be needed if convective
    coverage increases enough to pose a substantial severe threat.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 08/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v4cK9Uk5lnYQr-RBFW-8kmFVLBp_on_IEo4PwA8qMh76NX9-JzZCya6IP6EHa2Uj1IgIzRCZ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

    LAT...LON 38468726 39768482 40448223 40378097 39848038 39168028
    38248123 37598288 37458479 37358588 37478658 37618706
    37978734 38468726=20



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