• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1510

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 13 16:33:44 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 131633
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131633=20
    PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-131800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1510
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1133 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

    Areas affected...southern PA...MD...central and northern VA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 131633Z - 131800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated gusts 45-60 mph are forecast with the stronger
    storms this afternoon. Localized pockets of wind damage are
    expected.

    DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus
    field and the early stages of thunderstorm development near the
    WV/VA border. Surface temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s
    with dewpoints ranging from near 70 degrees west and mid-upper 70s
    near Chesapeake Bay. Area 88D VAD data shows weak tropospheric flow
    indicative of pulse thunderstorms. Steep low-level lapse rates with
    2 inches precipitable water will favor water-loaded downdrafts. The
    more intense downdrafts will be capable of gusts 45-60 mph with a
    localized risk for wind damage near the heavier bursts. A severe
    thunderstorm watch will be considered over the next hour or so.

    ..Smith/Hart.. 08/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!udtqZwBIqqwynXefC0zcK7ZQs3FiO6fx1LOe3Vb-eo4o1qHOhBXuu8MZNpt7Whh5Qmp-wzfX$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 36968039 40307823 40527675 40307609 39667610 37957714
    36747971 36968039=20



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