• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1508

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 13 02:56:14 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 130256
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130255=20
    KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-130430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1508
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0955 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast MO...Northeast AR...Southern IL...Western
    KY

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435...

    Valid 130255Z - 130430Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A localized damaging wind threat will continue tonight,
    though a gradual weakening trend is expected with time.

    DISCUSSION...The convective line that earlier produced measured
    severe wind gusts and wind damage around St. Louis has shown some
    signs of weakening over the last hour across southern IL, with
    warming cloud tops and weaker inbound winds from the KPAH radar
    compared to what was observed earlier from the KLSX radar. The
    gradual weakening trend is expected to continue as the boundary
    layer cools and stabilizes, but as a substantial cold pool continues
    to push southeastward in conjunction with this line, a localized
    damaging wind threat will continue downstream as long as convection
    remains active near the gust front.=20

    Further southwest, convection has recently increased in intensity
    across southeast MO, where somewhat greater buoyancy is in place per
    recent mesoanalyses. While this area is removed from the stronger
    cold pool surge to the east, a localized damaging wind risk may also materialize into far southeast MO and northeast AR into the late
    evening hours.

    ..Dean.. 08/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!unYWEiR-yL2zwf-2ugBVnirD9z8puo7cp-WC5ztUtH80tnxwxYy1wVIntbnKx0TQLS1g5r5R$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

    LAT...LON 37088838 36228955 36339108 36759142 37269067 37398979
    37858918 38398853 38238797 37918788 37548795 37088838=20



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