• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1507

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 13 02:09:10 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 130209
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130208=20
    NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-130315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1507
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0908 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

    Areas affected...eastern PA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 130208Z - 130315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Cluster of storms ongoing across central PA may pose a
    risk for damaging wind gusts for a few more hours before weakening
    this evening.

    DISCUSSION...As of 0150 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a line of
    strong thunderstorms across north-central PA moving east at 45 mph.
    Associated with a large band of storms that has recently weakened
    farther west, some resurgence has been noted with the lead cluster
    west of Scranton, PA. Recent IR imagery showed a localized area of
    cooling cloud tops indicating some additional storm
    development/strengthening may briefly be possible over the next
    couple of hours. Ahead of the line, SPC mesoanalyis indicates an
    unstable environment is in place with 2500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE.
    However, convective inhibition is also rapidly increasing as surface temperatures cool. Vertical shear while not strong at 25 kts is
    oriented perpendicular to the motion of the cold pool supporting
    strong convergence along the leading edge. Thus, it appears possible
    that some severe risk in the form of damaging wind gusts may
    continue for a few more hours before nocturnal stabilization
    diminishes the threat.

    ..Lyons.. 08/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q3IhTOC6D9x5Gy1huMJ6DKe3lphEgUc1OepgpARoyKF_HbgmKycOgAZtRBbKpM4yhAr5ERVl$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...

    LAT...LON 40327746 41797639 41887542 41637448 41107439 40537452
    40097477 39907494 39827543 39857627 39877706 40327746=20



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