• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1506

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 13 00:21:10 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 130021
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130020=20
    INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-130145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1506
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0720 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast MO...Southern IL...Far western KY

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 130020Z - 130145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat will continue this evening, though
    a gradual weakening trend is expected with time.

    DISCUSSION...A large thunderstorm cluster is moving southward across
    central MO into extreme western IL at 0015Z, with the strongest
    portion of the cluster located near St. Louis, where observed wind
    gusts of 49-58 kt have been noted from observing sites in the area.
    The greatest short-term damaging wind threat will likely remain with
    this portion of the cluster, which will affect far southeast MO into
    southern IL and far western KY through mid-evening.=20

    While a weakening trend is eventually expected later this evening
    due to weak vertical shear and increasing MLCINH, some damaging wind
    threat is likely to be maintained for the next 2-3 hours before more substantial boundary-layer cooling occurs. New watch issuance is
    possible downstream by 01Z, depending on short-term observational
    trends as the bowing segment approaches the edge of WW 434.

    ..Dean/Goss.. 08/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vLnoU-KW2Dr2A949KyOwd11ZtFEyJihmmVioZKG9iBvB-dr1hhbzyBvVpoZJLIPc-5gn1U1h$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...

    LAT...LON 38338817 37638786 37318811 37018858 36838943 36778985
    36799058 36809082 37489093 37619055 37818979 38148943
    38468848 38338817=20



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