Mesoscale Discussion 1506
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021
Areas affected...Southeast MO...Southern IL...Far western KY
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 130020Z - 130145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat will continue this evening, though
a gradual weakening trend is expected with time.
DISCUSSION...A large thunderstorm cluster is moving southward across
central MO into extreme western IL at 0015Z, with the strongest
portion of the cluster located near St. Louis, where observed wind
gusts of 49-58 kt have been noted from observing sites in the area.
The greatest short-term damaging wind threat will likely remain with
this portion of the cluster, which will affect far southeast MO into
southern IL and far western KY through mid-evening.=20
While a weakening trend is eventually expected later this evening
due to weak vertical shear and increasing MLCINH, some damaging wind
threat is likely to be maintained for the next 2-3 hours before more substantial boundary-layer cooling occurs. New watch issuance is
possible downstream by 01Z, depending on short-term observational
trends as the bowing segment approaches the edge of WW 434.
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at email@example.com and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1628814073-54770-6322--