Mesoscale Discussion 1505
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021
Areas affected...East-central MO into western IL
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434...
Valid 122306Z - 130030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434
SUMMARY...A damaging wind swath will be possible through 00-01Z in
association with a small bowing cluster.
DISCUSSION...At 23Z, a loosely-organized thunderstorm cluster and an
associated surging outflow was moving southeastward across
east-central MO and far western IL, while another outflow was
dropping southward in advance of the cluster. While vertical shear
is weak across the region, the strong cold pool and renewed
convective development along multiple outflow boundaries will likely
maintain a short-term damaging wind threat into the St. Louis area
and adjacent portions of western IL through 00-01Z.=20
With time, the combining outflows will likely continue surging
southward into this evening, potentially maintaining some damaging
wind risk into southeast MO and southwest IL, even as convection
eventually becomes more disorganized with time due to weak vertical
shear and increasing MLCINH.
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