• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1505

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 12 23:06:41 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 122306
    SPC MCD 122306=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1505
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0606 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

    Areas affected...East-central MO into western IL

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434...

    Valid 122306Z - 130030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434

    SUMMARY...A damaging wind swath will be possible through 00-01Z in
    association with a small bowing cluster.

    DISCUSSION...At 23Z, a loosely-organized thunderstorm cluster and an
    associated surging outflow was moving southeastward across
    east-central MO and far western IL, while another outflow was
    dropping southward in advance of the cluster. While vertical shear
    is weak across the region, the strong cold pool and renewed
    convective development along multiple outflow boundaries will likely
    maintain a short-term damaging wind threat into the St. Louis area
    and adjacent portions of western IL through 00-01Z.=20

    With time, the combining outflows will likely continue surging
    southward into this evening, potentially maintaining some damaging
    wind risk into southeast MO and southwest IL, even as convection
    eventually becomes more disorganized with time due to weak vertical
    shear and increasing MLCINH.

    ..Dean.. 08/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vm68xypnNdQPuwgkJ93rXR0uHLsPMjnnZU1wqn0-tzFa-TVlnY51L0pqpHfu2FzbOPwzx9Wf$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38009042 38029132 38179178 38349178 39239083 38958978
    38068982 38009042=20

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