• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1503

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 12 22:23:13 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 122223
    SPC MCD 122222=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1503
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0522 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

    Areas affected...Far eastern Ohio and west-central Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431...433...

    Valid 122222Z - 122345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431, 433

    SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue
    to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts through early evening.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2200 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
    showed a cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms across eastern
    Ohio and western Pennsylvania. Ongoing along a weak stationary
    frontal zone and outflow from previous convection, a very buoyant
    airmass remains in place ahead of the cluster. 3000-3500 J/kg of
    MLCAPE but weak vertical shear will support robust multicell
    updrafts into early evening. Model soundings show steep low-level
    lapse rates and favoring strong downdrafts. As additional storm
    development reinforces the surface cold pool, a few severe gusts
    will remain possible this evening across WW433 and western portions
    of WW431. Storm should eventually begin to weaken across central PA
    with the loss of diurnal heating later this evening, reducing the
    risk for damaging wind gusts.

    ..Lyons.. 08/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tsmkTatQffb-DEua1wHQ7RRaS1Sh5gxwG7sA1Clq57XJD0L35aCwQFmXQaDFfCyZsOTycolV$=
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    LAT...LON 40317890 40007974 39888047 39908121 40318149 40748116
    41228088 41648033 41927941 41937816 41837738 41667709
    41237697 40767708 40567760 40467846 40317890=20

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