• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1502

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 12 20:30:41 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 122030
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122030=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-122200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1502
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0330 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

    Areas affected...Far northeast Kansas and northern Missouri.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 122030Z - 122200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible
    into the evening across northeast Kansas and northern and central
    Missouri.

    DISCUSSION...Mid-level convection which has been present across
    northern Kansas and Missouri for much of the morning and early
    afternoon has started to sag south. As it does, it will continue to
    interact with a more unstable airmass. Effective shear is very weak
    across the region with mostly less than 20 knots of flow sampled
    through the troposphere from the KTWX VWP. However, the
    thermodynamic environment downstream is quite favorable with MLCAPE
    around 3500 J/kg, mid level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km, and DCAPE
    around 1300 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. Therefore, the weak shear
    should limit an organized severe threat, but the favorable
    thermodynamic profile could support isolated large hail and severe
    wind gusts.=20

    The isolated nature of the threat should limit the need for a watch,
    but trends will continue to be monitored.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!veVNpCjcWNgkkWes-06j9kukL397JEOHaYeDGyaujLKzuGCbeA9-kQIVcdQh0TqFF-A2ZVmC$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...

    LAT...LON 39549523 39939355 40069243 39659156 39009136 38589176
    38399283 38449485 38939535 39549523=20



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