• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1500

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 12 19:22:43 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 121922
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121922=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-122045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1500
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0222 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

    Areas affected...Central Illinois into west-central Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 121922Z - 122045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible through the
    afternoon and evening.

    DISCUSSION...Ongoing mid-level convection has been mostly a flash
    flood threat as storms were mostly training through the morning and
    early afternoon. However, recently outflow has pushed south from
    this activity into south-central Illinois where SPC mesoanalysis
    shows MLCIN has mostly eroded and a boundary layer cu field has
    developed. More robust convection has developed near the interaction
    of this outflow with the stronger instability (MLCAPE around 2500 to
    3500 J/kg). Effective shear is only around 25 kts per ILX/IND VWP
    and given the speed of the outflow, storm organization and
    maintenance along the surging outflow boundary may be difficult.
    Therefore, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur near storm
    collapses, but a more organized severe weather threat seems unlikely
    and thus no watch is anticipated.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rh7Iehsj-boFRAB1gWLnxI7jOObYhpRSROdPJ-7wjYBAAV52fLc_HXx3cAt15Q7UhaFYXBCN$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 40289028 40318858 40458767 39928628 38828649 38618838
    38828988 39209059 39839090 40289028=20



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