• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1499

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 12 19:17:39 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 121917
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121917=20
    PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-122015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1499
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0217 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

    Areas affected...northeast and east-central OH...WV
    Panhandle...western PA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 121917Z - 122015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Convective initiation is being monitored for over
    northeast OH during the through 4pm. If/once storms develop and
    subsequently intensify, the environment over adjacent parts of
    OH/WV/PA supports the stronger storms being capable of 55-65 mph
    gusts and wind damage.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus
    field with the initial signs of glaciation occurring southwest of
    Cleveland as of 305pm. A series of gravity waves are implied in the
    cumulus field, but this seems to have little overall impact for
    convective initiation. More consequential, an MCV located over the
    northwest quadrant of OH will continue to move east towards
    northeast OH. Ascent associated with this feature appears to be
    having some influence in the onset of more appreciable convective
    development. With upper 80s surface temperatures and middle 70s
    dewpoints, the 17z run of the RAP appears to have an accurate
    depiction of the surface conditions. The RAP forecast soundings
    show around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE over northeast OH. The 30-40 kt flow
    in the 700-500 mb layer (per the RAP soundings) will aid in some
    multicellular organization once convective initiation occurs. The
    primary risks with the stronger storms will be gusts in the 55-65
    mph range and perhaps marginally severe hail. The area from
    northeast OH into western PA is being considered for a severe
    thunderstorm watch.

    ..Smith/Thompson.. 08/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rmZ0DPmraVoWbpsiqwKslBCQ7uSoHWxria7CjY7baZf_quiN0O3zRq_OqchvyLxYSlLNz9gi$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...

    LAT...LON 40448242 41418233 42028032 41047959 40127967 40018197
    40448242=20



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