• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1498

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 12 16:20:11 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 121620
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121619=20
    PAZ000-121815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1498
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1119 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

    Areas affected...western and central PA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 121619Z - 121815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Convective evolution is a bit uncertain but a gradual
    increase in storm coverage is expected. The environment will
    continue to destabilize and become more favorable for damaging and
    localized severe gusts through the mid afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a cluster of
    intensifying thunderstorms near the northeast OH/northwest PA border
    moving east. A considerable patch of stratocumulus has been slow to
    erode through the midday hours due in part to the high-quality
    moisture present over the upper OH Valley east into central PA.=20
    Surface temperatures are gradually warming into the low 80s with
    dewpoints in the lower 70s. As temperatures warm into the mid-upper
    80s, upwards of 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE is possible over southwest PA
    northeastward into central PA this afternoon. The southern fringe
    of stronger low- to mid-level flow is across western PA (around 30
    kt at 3 km AGL). This slight enhancement in flow will aid in some
    thunderstorm organization in the form of coherent clusters. Strong
    to severe gusts (50-65 mph) will likely be the main threats with the
    stronger storms. Timing of when a more widespread severe threat
    will develop is a bit uncertain but it would seem a gradual increase
    in storm coverage/intensity would occur over the next couple of
    hours.

    ..Smith/Thompson.. 08/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t-dpR_zy7LSdlK-b-JvVyT7fpTTw9424ijNcDH_EJaOJmOGUhIEVJI3WhtVgYvzF_-6mYQWY$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...

    LAT...LON 41477997 41677785 41347662 40447674 40067779 40118033
    40778033 41477997=20



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