• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1497

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 12 15:04:10 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 121504
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121503=20
    NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-121730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1497
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1003 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

    Areas affected...northern and central NY...VT...northern PA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 121503Z - 121730Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will most likely be needed by
    the early afternoon timeframe as storms develop/intensify.=20
    Strong/severe gusts (50-65 mph) will be possible with the more
    intense downdrafts.

    DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows an MCV near the eastern
    shore of Lake Ontario quickly moving northeast and paralleling the international border. To the east through south of the mid-level
    feature, heating is occurring under mostly clear skies to areas of stratocumulus. Surface conditions as of 1050am on the NY Mesonet
    show temperatures ranging from the mid 70s beneath the cloud patches
    to lower 80s. Dewpoints range from 69-74 deg F.

    The Fort Drum, NY (KTYX) and Buffalo, NY (KBUF) VAD data show a belt
    of flow 35-50 kt around 3 km AGL. The VAD data is similar to the
    strength of flow (40-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) sampled by the
    12z Buffalo, NY raob.=20=20

    As the airmass continues to destabilize and yield moderate buoyancy
    by midday (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE), expecting storms to develop and
    increase in coverage through mid afternoon across central/northern
    NY. Clusters of strong to severe storms are possible resulting in damaging/locally severe gusts (50-65 mph). Scattered wind damage
    will be possible with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts.

    ..Smith/Thompson.. 08/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rnDsmhjZ58lyzkkVjBIZi5wFLG73V063WdbKuMP-6R4RyOc5BaKl59yQ6Ha7wurPh4ivfFXl$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

    LAT...LON 41917681 43237592 44467577 45007480 44967182 43177231
    41977452 41557579 41917681=20



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