• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1496

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 12 10:39:05 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 121039
    SPC MCD 121038=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1496
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0538 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

    Areas affected...Southern Lower MI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 121038Z - 121215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts are possible across south-central and
    southeast Lower MI over the next hour or so.

    DISCUSSION...Convective cluster moving northeastward across southern
    Lower MI recently produced a severe gust of 51 kt at Coldwater MI
    (OEB). Velocity signatures from IWX and DTX show this an area of
    enhanced outbounds well at around 5 and 6 kft, respectively. The
    cluster itself has also surged forward, with recent storm motion
    estimated at around 55 kt. The downstream air mass is very moist,
    with relatively minimal temperature-dewpoint spreads, suggesting
    these gusts are not driven by negative buoyancy but likely the
    manifestation of a strong downdraft reaching the surface and/or
    downward momentum transfer from the low-level jet. Given the
    reduction in buoyancy with northeastward extent, it is likely that
    this downburst will eventually surge ahead as the storm gusts out.
    However, low-level vertical shear is strong enough for localized downdraft/vertical shear balance to persist for an hour or so. As a
    result, damaging wind gusts are possible across south-central and
    southeast Lower MI for the next hour. Limited spatial and temporal
    extent of the threat will likely preclude the need for watch.

    ..Mosier/Edwards.. 08/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qQcxhsWoU-ez0slNFK4VLgo3mXYvlMeGYYL3ha0N0vZBBnfqaIwYvcPJUHrAeOoZ2lG4Le51$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 42208489 42518436 42778302 42378279 41788319 41668412
    41678486 42208489=20

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