• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1495

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 12 08:17:08 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 120817
    SPC MCD 120816=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1495
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0316 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

    Areas affected...Central IL...Northwest IN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 120816Z - 121015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and/or hail may occur across
    central IL and northwest IN over the next hour or two.

    DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms continued to develop along and
    ahead of the cold front pushing slowly southeastward across northern
    IL. A predominantly multicellular mode has been observed over the
    past hour or so, with occasional development of downdrafts strong
    enough to penetrate the low-level stability and produce gusts at the
    surface. Updrafts have been generally transient, likely a result of
    only modest vertical shear.=20

    The trends observed over the past hour will likely persist, with
    strong buoyancy supporting occasionally robust updrafts amid a
    generally disorganized storm mode. Given the ample low-level
    moisture, a few wet downbursts may be strong enough to reach the
    surface and produce damaging wind gusts. Storm mergers may also
    result in updrafts strong enough for hail, although the warm
    thermodynamic profiles may the hail threat less likely. Overall,
    isolated severe thunderstorms are possible within the extended
    portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430, but an additional watch is
    not anticipated.

    ..Mosier/Edwards.. 08/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tKj0_D-Fa_tuRWOUcARDVhkJ8gFB77JOx64FNWofZh4qpj47ICr0Ijkwxf7Riv0YOYHZ_6wp$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41109093 41638876 41838719 41578589 40798659 40079062

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