• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1494

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 12 04:07:06 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 120407
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120406=20
    MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-120530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1494
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1106 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

    Areas affected...Northern IL...Northern IN...Southern Lower MI

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430...

    Valid 120406Z - 120530Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorm development is possible overnight,
    but the magnitude and coverage of any severe risk remain quite
    uncertain.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms which briefly intensified earlier across
    northern IL and produced a near-severe gust west of Chicago have
    recently dissipated, while other generally disorganized convection
    continues across southwest lower MI in the wake of an earlier
    thunderstorm cluster. The greatest thunderstorm coverage across WW
    430 in the short term may continue to be across southwest MI, with
    the primary low-level jet expected to remain focused in this area.
    Further west, midlevel cumulus continues to be noted in IR imagery
    across northwest IL, and additional storm development remains
    possible into northern IL late tonight as a cold front moves into
    the region.=20

    While buoyancy remains rather large across the region, any
    additional development later tonight will likely become increasingly
    elevated with time as MLCINH increases, and effective shear for
    elevated parcels will likely remain rather weak due to marginal (at
    best) midlevel flow. Thus, any severe risk may remain isolated at
    best, and it is possible that portions of WW 430 will be cancelled
    early if no substantial redevelopment occurs by 05Z or sooner.

    ..Dean.. 08/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!osHQAyZMlKrATCcIjkE7gL4RdiSmZSQqSlRg2G1uuxq3mI-XCBidjDaLd977TJehXl225Jq-$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 42158977 42648809 42898562 42838488 42608429 42198436
    41638469 41308540 41158661 40988845 40978913 41048961
    41219035 41979015 42158977=20



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