• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1493

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 12 02:18:06 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 120218
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120217=20
    MIZ000-120345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1493
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0917 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast Lower Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 120217Z - 120345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Locally strong/damaging wind gusts are possible with a
    fast-moving thunderstorm cluster, but the threat appears too limited
    for watch issuance at this time.

    DISCUSSION...At 0215Z, a fast-moving thunderstorm cluster is moving
    across central lower MI. This cluster earlier produced wind gusts of
    50-60 mph across southwest MI, but some weakening has been noted as
    it moves into an increasingly stable environment. While some
    moistening and destabilization may occur downstream with time, a
    gradual decrease in intensity is expected as the cluster approaches
    southeast MI. Even if weakening occurs, some localized damaging wind
    threat may persist as the cluster remains embedded in a belt of
    rather strong unidirectional westerly flow.=20

    Watch issuance into southeast MI is currently considered unlikely
    due to the generally unfavorable environment downstream of the
    leading cluster. Additional rounds of storms are possible across the
    area later tonight as low-level warm/moist advection continues,
    which may also pose an isolated severe risk.

    ..Dean/Goss.. 08/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uwcOzFuHf2_fOJLEIzVQMtMlUOAFPDzn_6NEgAgQ8FdvR8vlG7TzxreJiZU0-KwTCK-XQG8h$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 43088424 43138328 42978264 42628253 42328265 42058308
    42018357 42078391 42338403 43088424=20



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