• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1491

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 11 23:46:35 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 112346
    SPC MCD 112345=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1491
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0645 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

    Areas affected...Southern Lake MI into central/southern Lower MI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 112345Z - 120115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms will likely increase in coverage this evening,
    posing a threat of at least isolated hail and damaging wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...At 2330Z, thunderstorms are increasing in coverage over
    southeast WI and southern Lake Michigan/southwest lower MI. These
    storms are likely being driven by a rather strong southwesterly
    low-level jet and rooted near or just above 850 mb, based on recent
    RAP forecast soundings across the region. While effective shear for
    storms rooted near 850 mb is relatively weak, steep midlevel lapse
    rates may support a localized hail risk with the strongest updrafts.
    Also, given that some heating has occurred across southwest lower MI
    in the wake of earlier convection and DCAPE is still generally
    greater than 1000 J/kg, some risk of damaging wind gusts will also
    be present despite the elevated nature of the convection.=20

    Since these elevated storms are expected to remain relatively
    disorganized, watch issuance is currently considered unlikely,
    though this will be reconsidered if trends indicate storms
    developing an organized cold pool and/or becoming rooted closer to
    the surface with time.

    ..Dean/Goss.. 08/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pGSCltRHOyJ_MtZARpmhgeT0uIyNsoK5TrsJvPfyODNFGYBXLgs2XodrnTjQxMvzyir8UySI$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 43148801 43718649 43788533 43728442 43018394 42448417
    42038517 41908600 42078697 42708793 43148801=20

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