• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1490

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 11 22:45:34 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 112245
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112244=20
    CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-120015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1490
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0544 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern PA into Southern NY...NJ...MD...and DE

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427...

    Valid 112244Z - 120015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds
    continue. A local extension of WW427 maybe required across portions
    of NJ and DE this evening.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms with a history of wind
    damage across southern PA will continue to pose a risk for damaging
    wind gusts this evening. Ongoing within an unstable (2000-3000 J/kg
    of MLCAPE) but weakly sheared environment (<20 kts of effective
    shear), convection has remained marginally organized in several
    bands of multicell storms. Recent radar trends show additional
    convective development ahead of the main band across northwestern NJ
    suggesting storms will likely continue to the Atlantic coast. With
    strong instability in place robust updrafts capable of strong
    outflow winds appear likely. A local watch extension across NJ may
    be required as storms approach the eastern edge of WW427 in the next
    hour or two.=20

    Farther north across southern NY, isolated severe storms have
    continued with a few instances of damaging wind gusts over the last
    couple of hours. Storms have generally shown less organization
    casting uncertainty on the severe threat for the remainder of the
    evening. As such, a few severe storms will remain possible but
    coverage is expected to remain low enough that a watch is unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Goss.. 08/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ucs9u_ZrLRcsicR_Pec48lz8hBTqQV57kriYZTVDgUBqIHZ7sint4xXA9v33W6sG1ij3Gq8c$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 40747603 41477497 41687421 41597358 41457347 41227353
    40847378 40057400 39597418 39347456 39257501 39417577
    39557621 39757646 40167648 40747603=20



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