• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1489

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 11 22:41:35 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 112241
    SPC MCD 112240=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1489
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0540 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern IA...Southern WI...Northwest IL

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 424...

    Valid 112240Z - 120015Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 424 continues.

    SUMMARY...Ongoing storms from eastern IA into southwest WI will
    continue to pose a short-term severe threat. The eastward extent of
    the threat this evening remains uncertain due to the impact of
    earlier convection across southern WI/northern IL. Storm coverage is
    being monitored for possible watch issuance across eastern IA.

    DISCUSSION...At 2230Z, a few intense cells are ongoing from eastern
    IA into southwest WI, within an environment characterized by large
    CAPE and effective shear of 25-35 kt. The mature storms in this
    region will continue to pose a short-term threat of locally damaging
    wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two into the early evening as
    they move eastward.=20

    Downstream into south-central WI/northern IL, the impact of morning
    convection is still evident, with relatively strong MLCINH
    persisting per recent mesoanalyses and low-level stratus increasing
    in recent visible imagery. Ongoing storms may tend to struggle with
    time as they move eastward, especially given the relatively limited
    large-scale ascent as the primary vorticity maxima move
    northeastward away from the area. Low-level warm advection may
    promote an increase in storm coverage later this evening, though
    this scenario remains somewhat uncertain.=20

    Meanwhile, across eastern IA, storm coverage remains uncertain into
    this evening, though with a conditionally favorable environment in
    place, watch issuance remains possible to the southwest of WW 424 if
    additional intense thunderstorm development appears imminent.

    ..Dean/Goss.. 08/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!unxsVRjmjSLxuBKYWqubX6azaj_yiapiHHt6-HnzS21gn3tLdV2SAWXJ3C9N9eUInn27dsma$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41819038 41519153 41449218 41559250 41779269 41919247
    42819117 43648959 43388865 42838860 42298937 41819038=20

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