• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1488

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 11 20:58:02 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 112057
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112057=20
    NHZ000-MAZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-112230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1488
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0357 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of the Northeast

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 112057Z - 112230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated storms capable of mostly damaging wind are
    expected to persist into the evening.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have formed along a weak wind shift
    where temperatures are in the upper 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in
    the low 70s. This yields MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg per SPC
    mesoanalysis. The KCXX and KENX VWP show around 25 to 30 knots of
    effective shear. This should be sufficient for some multicell
    clusters to develop. Despite a mostly weak wind profile, any
    multicell clusters could pose a threat for damaging winds given the
    favorable thermodynamic environment featuring DCAPE around 2500
    J/kg.=20

    The isolated nature of the threat should preclude the need for a
    watch.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tENhaoV4nAKLeaPCf-6uqTiz8h3Z1zLj2teXOLZrkVRrU-aNjI2MaVLPHErHCECPKdHPmBHJ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

    LAT...LON 41597454 42737391 44397376 44847202 43147118 41537168
    41067354 41157436 41597454=20



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