Mesoscale Discussion 1486
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021
Areas affected...Southern and Eastern Ohio
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 112024Z - 112200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Portions of eastern and southern Ohio are being monitored
for a potential watch downstream of watch 426.
DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues east across northern Ohio.
The airmass remains unstable downstream of this activity within
watch 426 but then becomes more uncertain to its south and east. A
large area of outflow from storms in West Virginia this morning has
surged northward and stabilized portions of southern and eastern
Ohio as can be observed by the lack of cu on visible satellite. In
addition, storms developed on this boundary in far eastern Ohio
which has acted to reinforce this outflow boundary as it continues
north. This may limit convective intensity across portions of
southeast and eastern Ohio. However, west of this outflow boundary,
a very unstable airmass is in place with MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg.
Recently storms have started to form ahead of the line within the
cumulus field which could also could pose some severe risk given the instability.
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