• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1485

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 11 20:21:35 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 112021
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112020=20
    MIZ000-112215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1485
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0320 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of northern Lower MI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 112020Z - 112215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The threat for scattered damaging wind gusts and perhaps
    isolated tornadoes should increase this afternoon. Watch issuance is
    likely.

    DISCUSSION...Supercells that formed earlier this afternoon over
    north-central WI have recently begun to grow upscale into a cluster
    as they move over northern Lake Michigan. A separate cluster ongoing
    over the eastern U.P. of MI should continue moving eastward, mainly
    across Lake Huron and southern Ontario. The airmass across much of
    northern Lower MI was unaffected by a convective cluster that
    occurred further south today, with surface temperatures recently
    warming into the at least low to mid 80s across northern Lower MI.
    The presence of rich low-level moisture and modestly steepened
    mid-level lapse rates are contributing to around 2000-2500 J/kg of
    MLCAPE. 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear associated with an upper trough
    and related west-southwesterly mid-level jet will likely continue to
    support storm organization as the northeastern WI cluster moves
    eastward over the next couple of hours. Given the mainly linear mode
    expected, scattered damaging wind gusts should be the main threat.
    Around 100 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH may also support an isolated/brief
    tornado threat as well. With expectations for an increasing severe
    threat through the remainder of the afternoon, watch issuance is
    likely in the next hour or so.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qiL5jXvhfRgoAXvpTX8n0gPUKjXQLRYb4qOjEX4YQy2LaE1L02GIlzqJ4wd_vwcnYxQ57Bmv$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...APX...

    LAT...LON 44218639 44788631 45498543 45848477 45828364 45358257
    44218231 44218639=20



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