• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1482

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 11 18:13:36 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 111813
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111812=20
    OHZ000-MIZ000-111945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1482
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0112 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast Michigan and northern Ohio

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 111812Z - 111945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed
    downstream of watch 423.

    DISCUSSION...An organized line of storms extends from central
    Michigan into northern Indiana. The environment downstream of this
    line is unstable with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Current SPC
    mesoanalysis shows decreasing instability with eastward extent.
    However, low-level thermal advection and warming should destabilize
    the entire land area to Lake Erie and Huron. Effective shear is not
    that strong (20 to 25 knots per SPC mesoanalysis), and thus storms
    may have a tendency to become outflow dominant. However, considering
    the favorable thermodynamic environment downstream, expect at least
    some damaging wind threat to continue, with additional development
    anticipated on the leading edge of any outflow boundary/cold pool.=20

    Therefore, a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued by 19Z.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r31buemxdp7fLH4-kujTw4l1QI59_coC_3VMzM2I0xOfTS7tNHMo83kASDOVDkpeaYNRMK-j$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 39718307 40138433 40388475 41958425 43268423 43718371
    44118296 43818243 42428222 41178191 40398214 39778262
    39718307=20



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