• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1481

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 11 18:04:33 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 111804
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111803=20
    NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-111930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1481
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0103 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 111803Z - 111930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat is increasing across portions of
    southern Pennsylvania.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has had intermittently stronger
    intensity at times as it has moved from northern Ohio into western Pennsylvania. However, over the past 30 minutes, it appears storm
    activity on the leading edge has started to realize the increasing
    surface based instability ahead of this line of storms as the line
    has filled in and reflectivity has become more intense. There is a
    well established cold pool associated with this activity with
    temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 in its wake. Given this well-established cold pool, combined with MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg,
    DCAPE around 1000 J/kg, and effective shear around 25 knots per SPC mesoanalysis, downstream persistence/potential strengthening is
    expected.=20

    In addition, thunderstorm activity is anticipated ahead of this
    line. While this activity is not expected to be overly organized, a
    favorable thermodynamic environment will support strong
    updraft/downdraft pairs and the potential for waterloaded downdrafts
    capable of isolated damaging wind gusts.=20

    Therefore, given these factors, a severe thunderstorm watch may be
    needed across this region.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vOcqToPfCCrLi4NpkoW_iyHLNuWOTjZPa0VG8dcslCwYmms85PhmWsrRNxC7BHzTnp4Lykt7$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

    LAT...LON 40157507 40007514 39867538 39837559 39697606 39737824
    39738050 40088053 40477988 40837967 41057960 41507935
    41697796 41427622 41147534 40637513 40157507=20



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