• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1477

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 11 15:51:03 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 111550
    SPC MCD 111550=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1477
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1050 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of far eastern OH...the extreme northern
    WV Panhandle...and western/central PA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 111550Z - 111745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...At least an isolated damaging wind threat may continue
    with storms through the early afternoon. Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms with a history of producing
    near-severe wind gusts is presently moving eastward across far
    eastern OH late this morning. Although some weak convective
    inhibition remains in the boundary layer per recent mesoanalysis
    estimates, continued diurnal heating should erode this inhibition
    within the next couple of hours. A rather moist low-level airmass is
    present downstream of the ongoing convection, with with surface
    dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s. Although the low-level
    winds across western PA are not overly strong per KPBZ VWPs, there
    is some increase to around 30-35 kt of westerly flow around 6 km
    AGL. This may be enough to support continued modest storm
    organization. Steepening low-level lapses promoting efficient
    downward momentum transfer and a linear mode both suggest that at
    least isolated damaging wind gusts should be the main threat with
    this activity through the early afternoon. Depending on convective
    intensity trends over the next hour or two, Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch issuance is possible.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tT5vi6ZmpbtZeMTAx1ys2ONzwBj0JWtd3S7V45yEbdFXwOLJjQ6OwZrP7x3s6z6ssQzu_Wyk$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 40468143 40758088 41588079 41597871 41317812 40307843
    39827891 39777962 40158096 40468143=20

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