• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1476

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 11 14:53:05 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 111452
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111452=20
    MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-111615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1476
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0952 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of northeastern IL...northern
    IN...southern Lower MI...and far northwestern OH

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 422...

    Valid 111452Z - 111615Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 422
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat continues in the short term with
    storms approaching Chicago. A downstream watch may be needed soon if
    storms maintain their intensity this morning.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple measured severe wind gusts up to 64 mph have
    been observed with a small bowing cluster moving eastward across
    northern IL this morning. Recent VWPs and velocity data from KLOT
    show evidence of a rear-inflow jet, and the potential for 60-75 mph
    wind gusts will likely continue in the short term as this cluster
    approaches downtown Chicago within the next 30 minutes. With mostly
    clear skies ahead of this convection across northern IN and southern
    Lower MI, the already moist low-level airmass downstream should
    continue to destabilize over the next couple of hours. The presence
    of modestly enhanced mid-level flow should support 30-40 kt of
    deep-layer shear, and 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will likely exist as
    well. There is still some uncertainty if the ongoing cluster will be
    able to maintain its intensity with eastward extent this morning.
    Still, if current trends continue, then a downstream Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch may need to be considered soon for parts of
    northern IN, southern Lower MI, and vicinity given the current rapid
    forward speed of the cluster.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oiK4cCHz0FP-IzWMc1ClNDSDt4xxoM4JExzW_87J7NW4iFRhPVKheFooUXsioi_3t3IYHnRn$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

    LAT...LON 41198848 41598841 41888851 42198842 42368618 42348438
    41008445 40528515 40578701 41198848=20



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