• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1475

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 11 13:34:34 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 111334
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111334=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-111500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1475
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0834 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of northern IL and northwestern IN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 111334Z - 111500Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe storms capable of producing both damaging winds and
    large hail may continue this morning. Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...The northern segment of a small cluster of storms has
    recently intensified across northern IL. The 12Z sounding from DVN
    showed strengthening westerly flow in the 0-6 km layer, and these
    storms may maintain their organization this morning as they move
    eastward given the presence of 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear. This
    convection is showing enhanced outbound velocities from KDVN at low
    levels, and there is some concern for a scattered damaging wind
    threat across northern IL, as 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE is present
    ahead of this activity. If current convective intensities are
    maintained, then a watch may need to be considered downstream soon.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 08/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vKMx2QDhijIo3tgadEomOfEWQtu3jY8KLotw9kldxl_oPyXnvrefLrFnQBRdXFPXe_TDssjD$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 40538830 40908964 41299008 42038979 42178826 42058756
    41578703 40608715 40538830=20



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