• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1474

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 11 13:32:36 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 111332
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111331=20
    PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-111500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1474
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0831 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

    Areas affected...Northern Ohio into far northwest Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 111331Z - 111500Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible through the
    morning.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms is moving across northern Ohio and
    has produced occasional stronger wind gusts including a gust to 41
    kts at the Findlay, OH ASOS. Inbound velocities are showing stronger
    wind speeds which based on this observation and lack of reports may
    suggest winds are mostly below 50 knots. The downstream environment
    is sufficiently unstable for MCS maintenance, but is not overly
    favorable for a severe wind threat. Southward propagation toward the
    better instability is likely through time and warming should lead to significant destabilization by late morning to to early afternoon.
    By this time, the severe weather threat may increase and a watch may
    be needed. However, no watch is anticipated in the next 1 to 2 hours
    given the current mostly weak downstream instability.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tKyi5dQN7LXi-7UO1TRjpriF5qnhEz-GxdWsUqvhcF-dkTxiUuWZHQYxQHi-QtLt19uuGEVD$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...

    LAT...LON 41508263 41548186 41828116 41928080 41908065 41378019
    41037999 40598050 40198112 40218167 40258241 40528303
    40808333 41508263=20



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