• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1473

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 11 12:28:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 111228
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111227=20
    WIZ000-MNZ000-111430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1473
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0727 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast MN...West-Central WI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 111227Z - 111430Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage and intensity is possible
    from southeast MN into west-central WI over the next few hours.
    Severe storms may be delayed until early afternoon/farther east, but
    a conditional risk exists over southeast MN into west-central WI now
    and convective trends across the region are being watched closely.

    DISCUSSION...Primary forcing for ascent attendant to the deep
    shortwave trough moving into western Ontario and the Upper Midwest
    is currently spreading across MN. A few deeper updrafts have
    developed across central/east-central MN as this ascent spreads
    eastward. Thus far, updrafts have been transient and relatively
    shallow, likely as a result of only modest buoyancy. However, the
    low-level moisture advection ongoing from the mid MS Valley into
    southern MN and central/southern WI is bring stronger buoyancy
    northward. As a result, the overall expectation is for a gradual
    increase in thunderstorm coverage and strength over the next several
    hours. Convective inhibition is still present across much of the
    region and storms will likely remain elevated initially before
    gradually becoming rooted closely to the surface over time. This
    transition may not occur until early this afternoon, but the
    strength of the buoyancy coupled with the approaching forcing for
    ascent may result in earlier severe storm development. As such,
    convective trends across the region will be monitored closely for
    signs that increases in storm coverage and intensity merit watch
    issuance.

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 08/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uxfyma70jpQ3ynjsJKuuqjV3UMEmNKcmvidcUoBK9xUNG-fGTKxQLbL__8vNJ3foyYS2wSy8$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 44159389 45559319 46089204 46019084 45599055 43789154
    43589289 43699368 44159389=20



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