• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1472

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 11 11:27:00 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 111126
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111126=20
    ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-111330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1472
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0626 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

    Areas affected...Far Northeast MO...Extreme Southeast
    IA...West-Central IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 111126Z - 111330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and/or a few damaging wind gusts
    possible over the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Cluster of thunderstorms across far northeast MO and
    extreme southeast IA has gradually intensified over the past hour.
    This activity currently appears to be rooted in the 850 mb to 700 mb
    layer. The downstream air mass is characterized by steep mid-level
    lapse rates and strong buoyancy, suggesting the ongoing cluster will
    likely be maintained in the short-term. Estimated storm motion takes
    these storms across west-central IL over the next two hours. Given
    the prevailing low-level stability, the primary severe threat will
    be large hail. However, a few strong gust may be able to penetrate
    this low-level stable layer, especially with eastern extent where
    greater low-level moisture currently exists. Overall severe coverage
    is uncertain, precluding higher watch probabilities. However,
    convective trends are being monitored closely.

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 08/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tUpf8uFrmoPWcBYuK4RWV82oEG9yI4y9HCbSjEyBP8JTogeTrmM8yKTF8mvxSrNbf2fGkipI$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

    LAT...LON 40479218 41219108 41588989 41238938 40538906 39849031
    39679257 40479218=20



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