• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1471

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 11 09:50:02 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 110949
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110949=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-111115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1471
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0449 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

    Areas affected...Northern/Central MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 110949Z - 111115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible but the overall risk for
    any severe thunderstorms appears low.

    DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have begun to develop within the
    warm sector ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across
    eastern NE. Recent water vapor imagery shows the ascent attendant
    to this system well (in the form of cooling cloud tops across northern/central). Steep mid-level lapse rates are in place,
    contributing to moderate buoyancy. In contrast, vertical shear is
    relatively modest, particularly in the layer where the buoyancy
    resides (roughly above 700 mb). As such, updraft longevity will
    likely be tempered, which should also limit any hail potential.

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 08/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oS_f6HBrlg_9114Sm5fGUetg_mAjhWfvBUyjPlJHgsa9b2nhmFyEujatxqnBdqKYrWAT9KXs$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

    LAT...LON 39529464 40149361 40499191 40139084 39049105 38679320
    38799466 39529464=20



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