• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1469

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 11 02:58:31 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 110258
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110257=20
    MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-110430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1469
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0957 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

    Areas affected...Much of lower Michigan and adjacent portions of
    northern Indiana and northwest Ohio

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421...

    Valid 110257Z - 110430Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A generally weakening line of thunderstorms may continue
    to be accompanied by strong to locally severe wind gusts across much
    of the remainder of lower Michigan and adjacent portions of northern
    Indiana and northwestern Ohio by 1-2 AM EDT. It is not yet certain
    that this will require an additional severe weather watch across
    eastern lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio, but trends are being
    monitored for this possibility.

    DISCUSSION...Substantial weakening has occurred to the ongoing
    convective system as it crossed Lake Michigan, and the temperature
    differential across the leading edge of the eastward advancing
    surface outflow is diminishing in a less strongly heated and slowly
    cooling boundary layer across lower Michigan. However, at least a
    narrow corridor of mid/upper 70s F surface dew points is returning
    northward ahead of line, across the Battle Creek and Lansing
    vicinities. And there are still areas of 50+ kt rear inflow still evident.=20=20

    At its current 45-50 kt forward propagation, the convective system,
    or its remnants, will overspread much of the remainder of lower
    Michigan and adjacent northwestern Ohio by 05-06Z. It remains
    unclear whether there will be significant re-intensification of
    convection, but the best chance for this may be along a zone of
    enhanced low-level warm advection preceding the convection, roughly
    across the Houghton Lake, Saginaw, Flint vicinities. Regardless,
    the gust front may remain capable of producing strong to locally
    severe wind gusts.

    ..Kerr.. 08/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vAr551x3hQBR5MsJwtb0TS7Lf7yp3mu_ay21KpqCsbQCVbpBpDEApUnGvApJWvyoLNmGJJ8F$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

    LAT...LON 40958739 41368613 42328530 43588562 44598578 45328553
    45508358 44578267 43478246 42078247 41088378 40728590
    40958739=20



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