Mesoscale Discussion 1468
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021
Areas affected...Western lower Michigan into northern Indiana and
far northwestern Ohio
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20
Valid 110012Z - 110115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to cross lake
Michigan and northern Indiana this evening. Damaging wind gusts
appear likely and a new weather watch will be coordinated shortly
for portions of lower Michigan, Indiana and Ohio.
DISCUSSION...As of 0000 UTC regional RADAR imagery showed a
well-developed convective line stretching from KGRB to KLOT.
Numerous reports of wind damage and measured gusts of 50 to 60 mph
have been reported with these storms over the last several hours.
Ongoing within an extremely unstable airmass characterized by MLCAPE
in excess of 4500 J/kg, observational trends and high-resolution
model guidance suggest these storms will continue to pose a risk for
damaging wind gusts this evening as they approach and eventually
cross Lake Michigan. While some weakening is expected across the
lake due to cooler temperatures, the strongly unstable environment
and robust cold pool should allow storms to maintain their current organization.
Downstream across lower Michigan, Northern Indiana and northwestern
Ohio, a warm front was observed lifting north of Grand Rapids to
near Detroit. South of this front, the airmass remains very unstable
with MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg. As the front continues to move north
this evening, additional destabilization of the airmass is expected.
As storms move back onshore around 0130 to 0200, the strongly
unstable airmass will support a threat for damaging wind gusts.=20
A new weather watch will be coordinated shortly for portions of Lake
Michigan, lower Michigan and northern Indiana.
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