• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1468

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 11 00:12:57 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 110012
    SPC MCD 110012=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1468
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0712 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

    Areas affected...Western lower Michigan into northern Indiana and
    far northwestern Ohio

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 110012Z - 110115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to cross lake
    Michigan and northern Indiana this evening. Damaging wind gusts
    appear likely and a new weather watch will be coordinated shortly
    for portions of lower Michigan, Indiana and Ohio.

    DISCUSSION...As of 0000 UTC regional RADAR imagery showed a
    well-developed convective line stretching from KGRB to KLOT.
    Numerous reports of wind damage and measured gusts of 50 to 60 mph
    have been reported with these storms over the last several hours.
    Ongoing within an extremely unstable airmass characterized by MLCAPE
    in excess of 4500 J/kg, observational trends and high-resolution
    model guidance suggest these storms will continue to pose a risk for
    damaging wind gusts this evening as they approach and eventually
    cross Lake Michigan. While some weakening is expected across the
    lake due to cooler temperatures, the strongly unstable environment
    and robust cold pool should allow storms to maintain their current organization.

    Downstream across lower Michigan, Northern Indiana and northwestern
    Ohio, a warm front was observed lifting north of Grand Rapids to
    near Detroit. South of this front, the airmass remains very unstable
    with MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg. As the front continues to move north
    this evening, additional destabilization of the airmass is expected.
    As storms move back onshore around 0130 to 0200, the strongly
    unstable airmass will support a threat for damaging wind gusts.=20

    A new weather watch will be coordinated shortly for portions of Lake
    Michigan, lower Michigan and northern Indiana.

    ..Lyons/Edwards.. 08/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t5Qt5cp8vOykczyzAYgAhTzb4SmcsJ6fJggswnnNAhL95SbpvQjUMHzHvCjszIIqagJM3nFM$=
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    44038453 43788433 43288413 42528402 41998408 41578428
    41308481 41258572 41178658 41238734 41968767 43058781

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