• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1467

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 10 22:51:30 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 102251
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 102251=20
    ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-110015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1467
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0551 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of Iowa...Illinois and Wisconsin.

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419...420...

    Valid 102251Z - 110015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 419, 420
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A well-developed line of thunderstorms will continue to
    pose a risk for damaging winds as it tracks east/southeast across
    WW419 and WW420.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2245 UTC, SPC mesonalysis shows extreme
    instability (MLCAPE of 4000-5000 J/kg) is in place with little
    remaining convective inhibition ahead of a line of severe
    thunderstorms across eastern Iowa, western Illinois and southern
    Wisconsin. Within the line, recent radar and satellite trends
    indicate a corridor of enhanced wind-damage potential may evolve
    across the southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois border region
    over the next several hours. Surface obs immediately behind the line
    show stronger cold pool development is underway. Greater lift along
    the cold pool may contribute to a stronger rear-inflow jet and
    bowing out of the line segment with time. This is also corroborated
    by several recent reports of wind damage and a measured wind gust of
    70 mph in Platteville, WI. Additional damaging wind gusts, some
    potentially 70+ mph, appear possible as this segment of the line
    continues to the east along the Illinois/Wisconsin border.

    Farther south across eastern Iowa, storms have struggled to maintain
    intensity likely due to weaker effective shear below 25 kts.
    Additional development ahead of the main line has been noted within
    the very unstable airmass, and should continue into this evening.
    While somewhat less favorable for severe wind gusts given the weaker
    vertical shear and limited organization, the additional storm
    development will likely reinforce the cold pool associated with
    previous convection and support a few damaging wind gusts as it
    track to the south and east into northwestern Illinois

    ..Lyons.. 08/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qs7_uDzMczrWDeXEo7MKzV0pmWUoAg6-zSV4pM_jwT0VfXluQFvf7PDzAZwHccERpa_FGnFl$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

    LAT...LON 42029165 42599062 43239045 43479025 43618978 43508869
    43218794 42858784 42328785 41808788 41598922 41229098
    41439144 41859167 42029165=20



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