• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1466

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 10 22:41:31 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 102241
    SPC MCD 102240=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1466
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0540 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of northwest/west central Arizona into
    southeastern California

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 102240Z - 110045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A large cluster of thunderstorms may continue to develop
    during the next hour or two across parts of northwestern Arizona,
    before spreading southwestward across the Lake Havasu vicinity and
    adjacent portions of the Colorado Valley by 6-8 PM PDT, accompanied
    by strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. It is not yet clear
    that a severe weather watch is needed, but trends will continue to
    be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Clusters of developing thunderstorm activity have
    generated a number of substantive west/southwestward propagating
    surface cold pools across the plateau region of northwestern Arizona
    into western portions of the Mogollon Rim. This has been aided by
    the downward transfer of momentum associated with 10-15 kt easterly
    wind fields around 500 mb. Similar magnitude southwesterly flow
    further aloft is allowing for anvil cloud cover and precipitation to
    advect to the northeast, and not interfere with the weak westerly
    and southwesterly low-level inflow.

    Although wind fields and shear are generally weak, latest
    observational data suggest that further convective development along intersecting outflow boundaries will continue during the next couple
    of hours. It appears that this could contribute to one
    consolidating cluster roughly centered south/southeast of Kingman.=20 Thereafter, activity should continue a southwestward propagation
    into and across the lower Colorado Valley, including the Lake Havasu
    vicinity and areas to the south, where a relatively moist, hot
    (surface temps at or above 100F) and deeply mixed boundary layer
    will be increasing conducive to the potential for severe surface
    gusts through 01-03Z.

    ..Kerr/Edwards.. 08/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ooY84RsbPJTgN5v9zy7_kFKG3Yo-xeq0Y3JgXe6PjozZWyjzfQHMtQpGmi0DgCu4pO-KJTHU$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 34471531 35331419 34751377 34701301 33781374 33421441
    33811522 34471531=20

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