• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1465

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 10 20:10:33 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 102010
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 102010=20
    WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-102215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1465
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0310 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of southern and eastern Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 102010Z - 102215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Watch likely by 21Z.

    DISCUSSION...A boundary has become more diffuse as if lifts north
    across southern Wisconsin over the past hour with occasional
    convective attempts. If storms go up along this boundary, a watch
    may be needed soon as extreme instability (MLCAPE around 4500 J/kg)
    should support explosive storm development. Averaged effective shear
    between KGRB and KDVN 19Z RAOBs shows around 25 knots. This would be
    sufficient for multicell storm modes with a threat for both large
    hail and damaging winds.=20

    However, even if storms do not develop along this boundary, a watch
    is likely eventually as storms move in from the west. Storms across
    eastern Iowa have started to organize and it appears they may be
    clustering in northeast Iowa. This may be the beginning of upscale
    growth into an MCS which would likely track across southern
    Wisconsin. A watch is likely by 21Z.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rAUbIIodCYzT26EUQ-435D_6eVVMXupj9p7ikrub9rRDBPqYhEpnVBUkv7wwHuFkeCS5thIM$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

    LAT...LON 43299028 43969021 44618952 44758812 44228746 43448777
    42738771 42288769 41938794 41648900 41688989 41909012
    42419050 42949038 43299028=20



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